Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.048245 0.055246 0.062536 0.070661 0.079436 0.088596 0.098854
2025-03-16 0.033719 0.043306 0.053985 0.066613 0.080997 0.096737 0.115131
2025-03-23 0.027333 0.038758 0.052218 0.068889 0.088640 0.110981 0.137850
2025-03-30 0.022474 0.034982 0.050490 0.070478 0.094942 0.123352 0.158292
2025-04-06 0.019574 0.033070 0.050548 0.073819 0.103039 0.137663 0.180956
2025-04-13 0.015827 0.029388 0.047824 0.073236 0.106001 0.145621 0.195980
2025-04-20 0.014639 0.029080 0.049390 0.078041 0.115624 0.161661 0.220781
2025-04-27 0.011612 0.025548 0.046143 0.076170 0.116499 0.166771 0.232218
2025-05-04 0.010407 0.024669 0.046502 0.079053 0.123466 0.179462 0.253004
2025-05-11 0.008503 0.022300 0.044422 0.078355 0.125566 0.185920 0.266028
2025-05-18 0.007466 0.021274 0.044240 0.080240 0.131065 0.196706 0.284503
2025-05-25 0.006565 0.020337 0.044082 0.082083 0.136467 0.207367 0.302866
2025-06-01 0.004752 0.017308 0.040451 0.078875 0.135175 0.209757 0.311408
2025-06-08 0.003271 0.014516 0.036888 0.075540 0.133585 0.211748 0.319552
2025-06-15 0.002816 0.014026 0.037291 0.078332 0.140752 0.225500 0.343081
2025-06-22 0.002323 0.013274 0.037118 0.080162 0.146526 0.237427 0.364337
2025-06-29 0.002075 0.013139 0.038076 0.083822 0.155015 0.253111 0.390646
2025-07-06 0.001511 0.011778 0.036497 0.083200 0.157119 0.260062 0.405475
2025-07-13 0.001456 0.012138 0.038385 0.088415 0.167992 0.279159 0.436529
2025-07-20 0.000958 0.010554 0.036081 0.086387 0.167887 0.283042 0.447347
2025-07-27 0.000823 0.010391 0.036771 0.089512 0.175627 0.297885 0.472898
2025-08-03 0.000547 0.009312 0.035302 0.088756 0.177359 0.304300 0.487153
2025-08-10 0.000428 0.008951 0.035418 0.090798 0.183423 0.316844 0.509736